Skip to main content Skip to main navigation menu Skip to site footer
Responsive image
Issue: Vol. 4237 No. 1: 27 Feb. 2017
Type: Article
Published: 2017-02-26
DOI: 10.11646/zootaxa.4237.1.5
Page range: 91–111
Abstract views: 261
PDF downloaded: 3

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina

IPEEC, CONICET, Boulevard Almirante Brown 2915, Puerto Madryn (Chubut), Argentina
IPEEC, CONICET, Boulevard Almirante Brown 2915, Puerto Madryn (Chubut), Argentina
Reptilia Ectotherms Habitat use Niche modeling Climate scenarios Conservation areas

Abstract

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

 

 

References

  1. Abdala, C.S., Acosta, J.L., Acosta, J.C., Álvarez, B.B., Arias, F., Avila, L.J., Blanco, G.M., Bonino, M.F., Boretto, J.M., Brancatelli, G., Breitman, M.F., Cabrera, M.R., Cairo, S., Corbalán, V., Hernando, A., Ibargüengoytía, N.R., Kacoliris, F., Laspiur, A., Montero, R., Morando, M., Pelegrin, N., Pérez, C.H.F., Quinteros, A.S., Semhan, R.V., Tedesco, M.E., Vega, L. & Zalba, S.M. (2012) Categorización del estado de conservación de las lagartijas y anfisbenas de la República Argentina. Cuadernos de Herpetología, 26 (3), 215–248.

    Aguiar, M.R., Paruelo, J.M., Sala, O.E. & Lauenroth, W.K. (1996) Ecosystem responses to changes in plant functional type composition: an example from the Patagonian steppe. Journal of Vegetation Science, 7 (3), 381–390.
    https://doi.org/10.2307/3236281

    Allen, J.L. & Lendemer, J.C. (2016) Climate change impacts on endemic, high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot. Biodiversity and Conservation, 25 (3), 555–568.

    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1071-4

    Allison, I., Bindoff, N.L., Bindschadler, R.A., Cox, P.M., Noblet, N. de, England, M.H., Francis, J.E., Gruber, N., Haywood, A.M., Karoly, D.J., Kaser, G., Quéré, C.L., Lenton, T.M., Mann, M.E., McNeil, B.I., Pitman, A.J., Rahmstorf, S., Rignot, E., Schellnhuber, H.J., Schneider, S.H., Sherwood, S.C., Somerville, R.C.J., Steffen, K., Steig, E.J., Visbeck, M. & Weaver, A.J. (2009) The Copenhagen diagnosis, 2009: updating the world on the latest climate science. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, 60 pp.

    Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon, R. (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43 (6), 1223–1232.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x

    Araújo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22 (1), 42–47.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010

    Araújo, M.B. & Pearson, R.G. (2005) Equilibrium of species’ distributions with climate. Ecography, 28 (5), 693–695.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2005.0906-7590.04253.x

    Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005) Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11 (9), 1504–1513.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.x

    Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Pearson, R.G. (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 33 (10), 1712–1728.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x

    Ares, J., Beeskow, A., Bertiller, M., Rostagno, M., Irisarri, M., Anchorena, J., Defossé, G. & Merino, C. (1995) Structural and dynamic characteristics of overgrazed lands of northern Patagonia, Argentina. In: Breymeyer A. (Ed.), Managed Grasslands. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam, pp. 149–175.

    Attorre, F., Francesconi, F., Taleb, N., Scholte, P., Saed, A., Alfo, M. & Bruno, F. (2007) Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen). Biological Conservation, 138 (3–4), 430–439.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2007.05.009

    Avila, L.J. (1994) Pristidactylus achalensis. Geographic distribution. Herpetological Review, 25 (4), 165–166.

    Avila, L.J., Morando, M. & Pérez, C.H.F. (2003) New records and natural history notes for Pristidactylus nigroiugulus Cei, Scolaro & Videla 2001 from Río Negro and Chubut provinces, Argentina. Herpetozoa, 16, 83–86.

    Barbet-Massin, M. & Jetz, W. (2014) A 40-year, continent-wide, multispecies assessment of relevant climate predictors for species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions, 20 (11), 1285–1295.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12229

    Barbosa, A.M., Sillero, N., Martínez-Freiría, F. & Real, R. (2012) Ecological niche models in Mediterranean herpetology: past, present, and future. In: Zhang, W.-J. (Ed.), Ecological Modeling. Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge, N.Y., pp. 173–204.

    Barve, N., Barve, V., Jiménez-Valverde, A., Lira-Noriega, A., Maher, S.P., Peterson, A.T., Soberón, J. & Villalobos, F. (2011) The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. Ecological Modelling, 222 (11), 1810–1819.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.011

    Basille, M., Calenge, C., Marboutin, É., Andersen, R. & Gaillard, J.M. (2008) Assessing habitat selection using multivariate statistics: some refinements of the ecological-niche factor analysis. Ecological Modelling, 211 (1–2), 233–240.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.09.006

    Bastos, E.G. de M., Araújo, A.F.B. de & Silva, H.R. da (2005) Records of the rattlesnakes Crotalus durissus terrificus (Laurenti) (Serpentes, Viperidae) in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a possible case of invasion facilitated by deforestation. Revista Brasileira de Zoologia, 22 (3), 812–815.
    https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-81752005000300047

    Bisigato, A.J. & Bertiller, M.B. (1997) Grazing effects on patchy dryland vegetation in northern Patagonia. Journal of Arid Environments, 36, 639–653.

    https://doi.org/10.1006/jare.1996.0247

    Bivand, R., Keitt, T. & Rowlingson, B. (2016) rgdal: bindings for the geospatial data abstraction library. R package version 1.1-3. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgdal (accessed 28 March 2016)

    Bivand, R. & Lewin-Koh, N. (2016) maptools: tools for reading and handling spatial objects. R package version 0.8-39. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=maptools (accessed 28 March 28 2016)

    Bivand, R. & Rundel, C. (2016) rgeos: interface to geometry engine - open source (GEOS). R package version 0.3-17. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgeos (accessed 28 March 2016)

    Böhm, M., Collen, B., Baillie, J.E.M., Bowles, P., Chanson, J., Cox, N., Hammerson, G., Hoffmann, M., Livingstone, S.R., Ram, M., Rhodin, A.G.J., Stuart, S.N., van Dijk, P.P., Young, B.E., Afuang, L.E., Aghasyan, A., García, A., Aguilar, C., Ajtic, R., Akarsu, F., Alencar, L.R.V., Allison, A., Ananjeva, N., Anderson, S., Andrén, C., Ariano-Sánchez, D., Arredondo, J.C., Auliya, M., Austin, C.C., Avci, A., Baker, P.J., Barreto-Lima, A.F., Barrio-Amorós, C.L., Basu, D., Bates, M.F., Batistella, A., Bauer, A., Bennett, D., Böhme, W., Broadley, D., Brown, R., Burgess, J., Captain, A., Carreira, S., Castañeda, M. del R., Castro, F., Catenazzi, A., Cedeño-Vázquez, J.R., Chapple, D.G., Cheylan, M., Cisneros-Heredia, D.F., Cogalniceanu, D., Cogger, H., Corti, C., Costa, G.C., Couper, P.J., Courtney, T., Crnobrnja-Isailovic, J., Crochet, P.-A., Crother, B., Cruz, F., Daltry, J.C., Daniels, R.J.R., Das, I., de Silva, A., Diesmos, A.C., Dirksen, L., Doan, T.M., Dodd, C.K., Doody, J.S., Dorcas, M.E., Duarte de Barros Filho, J., Egan, V.T., El Mouden, E.H., Embert, D., Espinoza, R.E., Fallabrino, A., Feng, X., Feng, Z.-J., Fitzgerald, L., Flores-Villela, O., França, F.G.R., Frost, D., Gadsden, H., Gamble, T., Ganesh, S.R., Garcia, M.A., García-Pérez, J.E., Gatus, J., Gaulke, M., Geniez, P., Georges, A., Gerlach, J., Goldberg, S., Gonzalez, J.-C.T., Gower, D.J., Grant, T., Greenbaum, E., Grieco, C., Guo, P., Hamilton, A.M., Hare, K., Hedges, S.B., Heideman, N., Hilton-Taylor, C., Hitchmough, R., Hollingsworth, B., Hutchinson, M., Ineich, I., Iverson, J., Jaksic, F.M., Jenkins, R., Joger, U., Jose, R., Kaska, Y., Kaya, U., Keogh, J.S., Köhler, G., Kuchling, G., Kumlutaş, Y., Kwet, A., La Marca, E., Lamar, W., Lane, A., Lardner, B., Latta, C., Latta, G., Lau, M., Lavin, P., Lawson, D., LeBreton, M., Lehr, E., Limpus, D., Lipczynski, N., Lobo, A.S., López-Luna, M.A., Luiselli, L., Lukoschek, V., Lundberg, M., Lymberakis, P., Macey, R., Magnusson, W.E., Mahler, D.L., Malhotra, A., Mariaux, J., Maritz, B., Marques, O.A.V., Márquez, R., Martins, M., Masterson, G., Mateo, J.A., Mathew, R., Mathews, N., Mayer, G., McCranie, J.R., Measey, G.J., Mendoza-Quijano, F., Menegon, M., Métrailler, S., Milton, D.A., Montgomery, C., Morato, S.A.A., Mott, T., Muñoz-Alonso, A., Murphy, J., Nguyen, T.Q., Nilson, G., Nogueira, C., Núñez, H., Orlov, N., Ota, H., Ottenwalder, J., Papenfuss, T., Pasachnik, S., Passos, P., Pauwels, O.S.G., Pérez-Buitrago, N., Pérez-Mellado, V., Pianka, E.R., Pleguezuelos, J., Pollock, C., Ponce-Campos, P., Powell, R., Pupin, F., Quintero Díaz, G.E., Radder, R., Ramer, J., Rasmussen, A.R., Raxworthy, C., Reynolds, R., Richman, N., Rico, E.L., Riservato, E., Rivas, G., da Rocha, P.L.B., Rödel, M.-O., Rodríguez Schettino, L., Roosenburg, W.M., Ross, J.P., Sadek, R., Sanders, K., Santos-Barrera, G., Schleich, H.H., Schmidt, B.R., Schmitz, A., Sharifi, M., Shea, G., Shi, H.-T., Shine, R., Sindaco, R., Slimani, T., Somaweera, R., Spawls, S., Stafford, P., Stuebing, R., Sweet, S., Sy, E., Temple, H.J., Tognelli, M.F., Tolley, K., Tolson, P.J., Tuniyev, B., Tuniyev, S., Üzüm, N., van Buurt, G., Van Sluys, M., Velasco, A., Vences, M., Veselý, M., Vinke, S., Vinke, T., Vogel, G., Vogrin, M., Vogt, R.C., Wearn, O.R., Werner, Y.L., Whiting, M.J., Wiewandt, T., Wilkinson, J., Wilson, B., Wren, S., Zamin, T., Zhou, K. & Zug, G. (2013) The conservation status of the world’s reptiles. Biological Conservation, 157, 372–385.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.07.015

    Böhm, M., Williams, R., Bramhall, H.R., McMillan, K.M., Davidson, A.D., Garcia, A., Bland, L.M., Bielby, J. & Collen, B. (2016) Correlates of extinction risk in squamate reptiles: the relative importance of biology, geography, threat and range size. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25 (4), 391–405.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12419

    Bonino, M.F., Azócar, D.L.M., Ii, J.A.S. & Cruz, F.B. (2015) Climate change and lizards: changing species’ geographic ranges in Patagonia. Regional Environmental Change, 15 (6), 1121–1132.
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0693-x

    Breitman, M.F., Bonino, M.F., Sites, J.W., Avila, L.J. & Morando, M. (2015) Morphological variation, niche divergence, and phylogeography of lizards of the Liolaemus lineomaculatus section (Liolaemini) from southern Patagonia. Herpetological Monographs, 29 (1), 65–88.

    https://doi.org/10.1655/HERPMONOGRAPHS-D-14-00003

    Calenge, C. (2015) adehabitatHS: analysis of habitat selection by animals. Available from: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/adehabitatHS/index.html (accessed 29 March 2016)

    Calenge, C. & Basille, M. (2008) A general framework for the statistical exploration of the ecological niche. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 252 (4), 674–685.

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.02.036

    Caruso, N., Guerisoli, M., Luengos Vidal, E.M., Castillo, D., Casanave, E.B. & Lucherini, M. (2015) Modelling the ecological niche of an endangered population of Puma concolor: First application of the GNESFA method to an elusive carnivore. Ecological Modelling, 297, 11–19.

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.004

    Ceia-Hasse, A., Sinervo, B., Vicente, L. & Pereira, H.M. (2014) Integrating ecophysiological models into species distribution projections of European reptile range shifts in response to climate change. Ecography, 37, 1–10.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00600.x

    Cei, J.M. (1986) Reptiles del centro, centro-oeste y sur de la Argentina. Herpetofauna de las zonas áridas y semiáridas. Museo Regionale di Scienze Naturali Torino, Torino, 527 pp.

    Cei, J.M., Scolaro, J.A. & Videla, F. (2001) The present status of Argentinean Polychrotidae species of the genus Pristidactylus and description of its southernmost taxon as a new species. Journal of Herpetology, 35 (4), 597–605.
    https://doi.org/10.2307/1565897

    Cesa, A. & Paruelo, J.M. (2011) Changes in vegetation structure induced by domestic grazing in Patagonia (Southern Argentina). Journal of Arid Environments, 75 (11), 1129–1135.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.04.003

    Chase, J.M. (2003) Community assembly: when should history matter? Oecologia, 136 (4), 489–498.
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-003-1311-7

    Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Kolli, R.K., Kwon, W.T., Laprise, R., Rueda, V.M., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C.G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A. & Sarr, A. (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, pp. 847–940.

    CMIP5 (2015) CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison. World Climate Research Programme Project. Available from: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/ (accessed 23 October 2015)

    Colwell, R.K. & Rangel, T.F. (2009) Hutchinson’s duality: the once and future niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (Supplement 2), 19651–19658.
    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901650106

    Cruz, F.B., Schulte II, J.A. & Bellagamba, P. (1999) New distributional records and natural history notes for reptiles from southern Argentina. Herpetological Review, 30 (3), 182–183.

    Debandi, G., Corbalán, V., Scolaro, J.A. & Roig-Juñent, S.A. (2012) Predicting the environmental niche of the genus Phymaturus: Are palluma and patagonicus groups ecologically differentiated? Austral Ecology, 37 (3), 392–400.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02295.x

    Dijkshoorn, J., Huting, J. & Tempel, P. (2005) Update of the 1:5 million Soil and Terrain Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SOTERLAC; version 2.0). Wageningen, 25 pp. Available from: http://www.isric.org/data/soil-and-terrain-database-latin-america-and-caribbean-ver-20-soterlac (accessed 28 July 2015)

    Dormann, C.F., Elith, J., Bacher, S., Buchmann, C., Carl, G., Carré, G., Marquéz, J.R.G., Gruber, B., Lafourcade, B., Leitão, P.J., Münkemüller, T., McClean, C., Osborne, P.E., Reineking, B., Schröder, B., Skidmore, A.K., Zurell, D. & Lautenbach, S. (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography, 36 (1), 27–46.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x

    Dormann, C.F., Schymanski, S.J., Cabral, J., Chuine, I., Graham, C., Hartig, F., Kearney, M., Morin, X., Römermann, C., Schröder, B. & Singer, A. (2012) Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy. Journal of Biogeography, 39 (12), 2119–2131.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x

    Elith, J. & Leathwick, J.R. (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40 (1), 677–697.
    https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159

    Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y.E. & Yates, C.J. (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists: statistical explanation of MaxEnt. Diversity and Distributions, 17 (1), 43–57.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x

    Etheridge, R. & Williams, E.E. (1985) Notes on Pristidactylus (Squamata: Iguanidae). Breviora, 483, 1–18.

    Fitzpatrick, M.C. & Hargrove, W.W. (2009) The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodiversity and Conservation, 18 (8), 2255–2261.

    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-009-9584-8

    El-Gabbas, A., Baha El Din, S., Zalat, S. & Gilbert, F. (2016) Conserving Egypt’s reptiles under climate change. Journal of Arid Environments, 127, 211–221.

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.12.007

    Gallardo, J.M. (1964) Los géneros “Urostrophus” D. et B. y “Cupriguanus” gen. nov. (Sauria, Iguanidae) y sus especies. Neotropica, 10 (33), 125–136.

    GBIF (2015) Species Search. GBIF—Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Free and open access to biodiversity data. Available from: http://www.gbif.org/species (accessed 9 March 2015)

    Gibson, L., McNeill, A., Tores, P. de, Wayne, A. & Yates, C. (2010) Will future climate change threaten a range restricted endemic species, the quokka (Setonix brachyurus), in south west Australia? Biological Conservation, 143 (11), 2453–2461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.06.011

    Hall, L.S., Krausman, P.R. & Morrison, M.L. (1997) The habitat concept and a plea for standard terminology. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 25 (1), 173–182.

    Hijmans, R.J. (2015a) geosphere: spherical trigonometry. R package version 1.5-1. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=geosphere (accessed 28 March 2016)

    Hijmans, R.J. (2015b) raster: geographic data analysis and modeling. R package version 2.5-2. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster (accessed 28 March 2016)

    Honegger, R. (1981) List of amphibians and reptiles either known or thought to have become extinct since 1600. Biological Conservation, 19 (2), 141–158.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/0006-3207(81)90049-5

    Huey, R.B., Kearney, M.R., Krockenberger, A., Holtum, J.A.M., Jess, M. & Williams, S.E. (2012) Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367 (1596), 1665–1679.
    https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0005

    Hughes, L. (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15 (2), 56–61.

    IUCN (2015) The IUCN red list of threatened species. Version 2015-3. Available from: http://www.iucnredlist.org/ (accessed 5 November 2015)

    Jones, K.R., Watson, J.E.M., Possingham, H.P. & Klein, C.J. (2016) Incorporating climate change into spatial conservation prioritisation: A review. Biological Conservation, 194, 121–130.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.12.008

    Kershaw, F., Waller, T., Micucci, P., Draque, J., Barros, M., Buongermini, E., Pearson, R.G. & Mendez, M. (2013) Informing conservation units: barriers to dispersal for the yellow anaconda. Diversity and Distributions, 19 (9), 1164–1174.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12101

    Kubisch, E.L., Corbalán, V., Ibargüengoytía, N.R. & Sinervo, B. (2015) Local extinction risk by global warming of three species of lizards from Patagonia. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 94 (1), 49–59.
    https://doi.org/10.1139/cjz-2015-0024

    Kujala, H., Moilanen, A., Araújo, M.B. & Cabeza, M. (2013) Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections. In: Mouquet, N. (Ed.), PLoS ONE, 8 (2), e53315.

    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053315

    Labra, A. (1995) Thermoregulation in Pristidactylus lizards (Polycridae): effects of group size. Journal of herpetology, 260–264.

    Lemes, P., Melo, A.S. & Loyola, R.D. (2014) Climate change threatens protected areas of the Atlantic Forest. Biodiversity and Conservation, 23 (2), 357–368.

    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-013-0605-2

    Loarie, S.R., Duffy, P.B., Hamilton, H., Asner, G.P., Field, C.B. & Ackerly, D.D. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462 (7276), 1052–1055.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08649

    Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17 (2), 145–151.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.x

    Malcolm, J.R., Markham, A., Neilson, R.P. & Garaci, M. (2002) Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 29 (7), 835–849.
    https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00702.x

    Manly, B.F., McDonald, L., Thomas, D., McDonald, T.L. & Erickson, W.P. (2002) Resource selection by animals: statistical design and analysis for field studies. 2nd Edition. Springer, Dordrecht & Boston, 222 pp.

    Marini, M.Â., Barbet-Massin, M., Martinez, J., Prestes, N.P. & Jiguet, F. (2010) Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei). Biological Conservation, 143 (1), 102–112.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.09.009

    Martínez-Meyer, E., Townsend Peterson, A. & Hargrove, W.W. (2004) Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13 (4), 305–314.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-822x.2004.00107.x

    McInerny, G.J. & Etienne, R.S. (2012a) Ditch the niche—is the niche a useful concept in ecology or species distribution modelling? Journal of Biogeography, 39 (12), 2096–2102.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12033

    McInerny, G.J. & Etienne, R.S. (2012b) Pitch the niche—taking responsibility for the concepts we use in ecology and species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 39 (12), 2112–2118.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12031

    McInerny, G.J. & Etienne, R.S. (2012c) Stitch the niche—a practical philosophy and visual schematic for the niche concept. Journal of Biogeography, 39 (12), 2103–2111.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12032

    Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S.C.B., Watterson, I.G. & Weaver, A.J. (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge & New York, pp. 748–846.

    Menzel, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N., Koch, E., Aasa, A., Ahas, R., Alm-KüBler, K., Bissolli, P., Braslavská, O., Briede, A., Chmielewski, F.M., Crepinsek, Z., Curnel, Y., Dahl, åSlöG, Defila, C., Donnelly, A., Filella, Y., Jatczak, K., MåGe, F., Mestre, A., Nordli, øYvind, PeñUelas, J., Pirinen, P., RemišOvá, V., Scheifinger, H., Striz, M., Susnik, A., Van Vliet, A.J.H., Wielgolaski, F.-E., Zach, S. & Zust, A. (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology, 12 (10), 1969–1976.

    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x

    Merow, C., Smith, M.J. & Silander, J.A. (2013) A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography, 36 (10), 1058–1069.

    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x

    Minoli, I. & Avila, L.J. (2011) Squamata, Iguania, Leiosauridae, Pristidactylus nigroiugulus Cei, Scolaro and Videla, 2001: New records for Chubut province and geographic distribution. Check List, 7 (4), 404–406.

    Minoli, I., Morando, M. & Avila, L.J. (2015) Reptiles of Chubut province, Argentina: richness, diversity, conservation status and geographic distribution maps. ZooKeys, 498, 103–126.
    https://doi.org/10.3897/zookeys.498.7476

    Monserud, R.A. & Leemans, R. (1992) Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modelling, 62 (4), 275–293.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(92)90003-W

    Nori, J., Lescano, J.N., Illoldi-Rangel, P., Frutos, N., Cabrera, M.R. & Leynaud, G.C. (2013) The conflict between agricultural expansion and priority conservation areas: Making the right decisions before it is too late. Biological Conservation, 159, 507–513.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.11.020

    Nori, J., Moreno Azócar, D.L., Cruz, F.B., Bonino, M.F. & Leynaud, G.C. (2016) Translating niche features: modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change. Austral Ecology, 41 (4), 367–375.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12321

    Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286

    Pearson, R.G., Raxworthy, C.J., Nakamura, M. & Townsend Peterson, A. (2007) Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. Journal of Biogeography, 34 (1), 102–117.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01594.x

    Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martinez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T.P. & Lees, D.C. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography, 33 (10), 1704–1711. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x

    Pebesma, E. & Bivand, R. (2016) sp: classes and methods for spatial data in R. R News 5 (2),. Available from: http://cran.r-project.org/doc/Rnews/ (accessed 28 March 2016)

    Penman, T.D., Pike, D.A., Webb, J.K. & Shine, R. (2010) Predicting the impact of climate change on Australia’s most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides: impact of climate change on an endangered snake. Diversity and Distributions, 16 (1), 109–118.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00619.x

    Peterson, A.T., Tian, H., Martínez-Meyer, E., Soberón, J., Sánchez-Cordero, V. & Weaver, A.J. (2005) Modeling distributional shifts of individual species and biomes. In: Lovejoy, T.E. & Hannah, L. (Eds.), Climate Change and Biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Halen & London, pp. 211–231.

    Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190 (3–4), 231–259.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026

    Phillips, S.J. & Dudík, M. (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31 (2), 161–175.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x

    Phillips, S.J., Dudík, M. & Schapire, R.E. (2016) Maxent software and datasets. 3.3.3k Version. Maxent software for species habitat modeling. Available from: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/maxent/ (accessed March 10 2016)

    van Proosdij, A.S.J., Sosef, M.S.M., Wieringa, J.J. & Raes, N. (2016) Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models. Ecography, 39 (6), 542–552.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01509

    Radosavljevic, A. & Anderson, R.P. (2014) Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation. In: Araújo M. (Ed.), Journal of Biogeography, 41 (4), pp. 629–643.
    https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12227

    Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E. & Somerville, R.C.J. (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709.
    https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136843

    Rangel, T.F. & Loyola, R.D. (2012) Labeling Ecological Niche Models. Natureza & Conservação, 10 (2), 119–126.
    https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.030

    Rissler, L.J. & Apodaca, J. (2007) Adding more ecology into species delimitation: ecological niche models and phylogeography help define cryptic species in the black salamander (Aneides flavipunctatus). Systematic Biology, 56 (6), 924–942.
    https://doi.org/10.1080/10635150701703063

    Ruete, A. & Leynaud, G.C. (2015) Identification of limiting climatic and geographical variables for the distribution of the tortoise Chelonoidis chilensis (Testudinidae): a baseline for conservation actions. PeerJ, 3, e1298.
    https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1298

    Sahlean, T.C., Gherghel, I., Papeş, M., Strugariu, A. & Zamfirescu, Ş.R. (2014) Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the caspian whip snake. PLOS ONE, 9 (3), e91994.
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091994

    Salas, N.E., Giordana, M.B. & di Tada, I.E. (2004) Pristidactylus achalensis. Argentina: San Luis. Herpetological Review, 35 (2), 188.

    Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461 (7260), 53–59.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227

    Schloerke, B., Crowley, J., Cook, D., Briatte, F., Marbach, M., Thoen, E. & Elberg, A. (2016) GGally: extension to ggplot2. Available from: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GGally/index.html (accessed 19 April 2016)

    Schwartz, M.W. (2012) Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions. Biological Conservation, 155, 149–156.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.06.011

    Sillero, N. & Carretero, M.A. (2013) Modelling the past and future distribution of contracting species. The iberian lizard Podarcis carbonelli (Squamata: Lacertidae) as a case study. Zoologischer Anzeiger—A Journal of Comparative Zoology, 252 (3), 289–298.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcz.2012.08.004

    Sinervo, B., Méndez de la Cruz, F., Miles, D.B., Heulin, B., Bastiaans, E., Villagrán Santa Cruz, M., Lara Resendiz, R., Martinez Méndez, N., Calderón Espinosa, M.L., Meza Lazaro, R.N., Gadsden, H., Avila, L.J., Morando, M., De la Riva, I.J., Sepúlveda, P.V., Rocha, C.F.D., Ibarguengoytía, N., Puntriano, C.A., Massot, M., Lepetz, V., Oksanen, T.A., Chapple, D.G., Bauer, A.M., Branch, W.R., Clobert, J. & Sites, J.W. (2010) Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 328 (5980), 894–899.
    https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695

    Sinsch, U., Martino, A.L. & di Tada, I.E. (2002) Longevity and sexual size dimorphism of the Pampa de Achala copper lizard Pristidactylus achalensis (Gallardo, 1964). Amphibia Reptilia, 23 (2), 177–190.
    https://doi.org/10.1163/156853802760061822

    Smith, J.B., Schneider, S.H., Oppenheimer, M., Yohe, G.W., Hare, W., Mastrandrea, M.D., Patwardhan, A., Burton, I., Corfee-Morlot, J. & Magadza, C.H. (2009) Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)“reasons for concern.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (11), 4133–4137.
    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812355106

    Soberón, J. & Nakamura, M. (2009) Niches and distributional areas: concepts, methods, and assumptions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (Supplement 2), 19644–19650.
    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901637106

    Soberón, J. & Peterson, A.T. (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species’ distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics, 2 (0), 1–10.
    https://doi.org/10.17161/bi.v2i0.4

    Syfert, M.M., Smith, M.J. & Coomes, D.A. (2013) The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models. PloS ONE, 8 (2), e55158.
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055158

    Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F., De Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A. & Hannah, L. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427 (6970), 145–148.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

    Tingley, M.W., Monahan, W.B., Beissinger, S.R. & Moritz, C. (2009) Birds track their grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (Supplement 2), 19637–19643.

    Townsend Peterson, A., Papeş, M. & Soberón, J. (2016) Mechanistic and correlative models of ecological niches. European Journal of Ecology, 1 (2), 28–38.
    https://doi.org/10.1515/eje-2015-0014

    Townsend Peterson, A. & Soberón, J. (2012) Species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling: getting the concepts right. Natureza & Conservação, 10 (2), 102–107.
    https://doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2012.019

    Vera-Escalona, I., D’Elía, G., Gouin, N., Fontanella, F.M., Muñóz-Mendoza, C. & Sites Jr, J.W. (2012) Lizards on ice: evidence for multiple refugia in Liolaemus pictus (Liolaemidae) during the last glacial maximum in the southern andean beech forests. PLoS ONE, 7 (11), e48358.

    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048358

    Vidal Maldonado, M.A. & Labra Lillo, A. (2008) Herpetología de Chile. Science Verlag, Santiago de Chile, 593 pp.

    Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bairlein, F. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416 (6879), 389–395.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a

    Williams, J.W., Jackson, S.T. & Kutzbach, J.E. (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (14), 5738–5742.
    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0606292104

    WorldClim [Global Climate Data] (2015) CMIP5 30-seconds | WorldClim—Global Climate Data. WorldClim—Global Climate Data. Free climate data for ecological modeling and GIS. Available from: http://www.worldclim.org/cmip5_30s#com (accessed 15 June 2015)

    Zajitschek, S.R., Zajitschek, F. & Clobert, J. (2012) The importance of habitat resistance for movement decisions in the common lizard, Lacerta vivipara. BMC ecology, 12 (13), 1–9.

    https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6785-12-13

    Zank, C., Becker, F.G., Abadie, M., Baldo, D., Maneyro, R. & Borges-Martins, M. (2014) Climate change and the distribution of neotropical red-bellied toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): how to prioritize species and populations? PLoS ONE, 9 (4), e94625.
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094625